The Super El Niño Is Coming
What Could A Super El Niño Mean for Skiing in the San Juan Mountains?
If you ski or snowboard in Colorado, you have probably heard the terms El Niño and La Niña thrown around when winter forecasts start appearing. These two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the position of the jet stream, the track of winter storms, and where precipitation falls across the United States. For the 2026–27 winter season, there is an especially strong El Niño weather pattern developing, possibly the strongest in modern record in the Northern Hemisphere.
This has generated plenty of excitement among skiers, particularly in southern Colorado. So what does it actually mean for the San Juan Mountains, and what might it mean for backcountry skiing around Ouray, Silverton, and Red Mountain Pass?
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO, a recurring climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than normal. That change can influence atmospheric circulation, including the position and strength of the jet stream over North America.
The result is a tendency for the winter storm track to shift southward across the United States. Storms can become more frequent across California and the southern tier of the country, bringing increased moisture into the Southwest and southern Rockies.
The southern Colorado mountains, including the San Juans, tend to have a more favorable precipitation signal during strong El Niño winters than many areas farther north.
What Is La Niña?
La Niña is essentially the opposite phase of the ENSO cycle.
During La Niña, tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are cooler than average. The atmospheric response tends to shift the Pacific jet stream northward, favoring stormier conditions across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies while often producing warmer and drier conditions across the southern tier of the United States.
For Colorado skiers, it essentially means that La Niña tends to favor the Pacific Northwest, Canada, and even the northern Rockies while El Niño tends to favor southwest Colorado.
While neither pattern determines the weather for an entire winter, but the difference can be meaningful when looking at long term averages.
So, What Is a "Super El Niño"?
"Super El Niño" isn't a distinct ENSO phase, but is an informal term used to describe an exceptionally strong El Niño event. The El Niño weather pattern for the 2026-27 winter season is lining up to be historically powerful, perhaps even the strongest in modern histroy.
The current ocean temperatures are already remarkable. NOAA reported that sea surface temperature anomalies in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded +3°C.
What Does A Super El Niño Mean for Snow In Colorado This Winter?
Historically, El Niño's influence on Colorado has been mixed.
The state sits in an interesting position relative to the typical El Niño storm track. Southern Colorado is closer to the storm systems and moisture associated with the southern branch of the jet stream, while northern Colorado can see a much less consistent signal.
Recent analysis of Colorado snowpack during El Niño winters illustrates this difference. At the Upper San Juan SNOTEL station near Wolf Creek, the median March 31 snow water equivalent during the past ten El Niño winters since 1982 was 113% of the 1991–2020 normal. Five of those ten winters finished at 110% of normal or better, while none finished below 90%.
That doesn't mean every El Niño produces an enormous San Juan snowpack. In fact, the historical record contains considerable variation. What it does suggest is that southern Colorado has historically been one of the more favorable parts of the state during El Niño winters.
Current 2026-27 seasonal analysis points in the same direction. OpenSnow's Colorado forecast identifies above normal snowfall as favored across southern and eastern Colorado, with the San Juan Mountains specifically included among the areas that can benefit from the Super El Niño conditions.
Why the San Juan Mountains Could Do Well This Winter
The San Juan Mountains occupy a particularly favorable position for taking advantage of southern storm tracks.
When a series of Pacific storms moves into the southwest and southern Rockies, the San Juans can be directly exposed to those moisture rich systems. Their high elevations then provide the cold temperatures necessary to turn that moisture into snow.
This combination is important: moisture + storm frequency + high elevation = potential for significant snowfall.
Popular ski terrain such as Silverton, Ouray, Red Mountain Pass, Telluride, and Wolf Creek are all positioned within the southern Colorado mountain region where strong El Niño winters can produce favorable snowfall patterns.
For backcountry skiers, that could translate into a deeper and more reliably stable snowpack with more opportunities for powder skiing throughout the season.
Ski the San Juan Mountains With Skyward Mountaineering
Skyward Mountaineering offers guided backcountry skiing and ski mountaineering throughout the winter and spring season in the San Juan Mountains, including terrain around Silverton, Ouray, Red Mountain Pass, and Mount Sneffels.
Our guides can help you choose terrain appropriate for your experience, manage dynamic snow and avalanche conditions, and make the most of the day's weather and snowpack.
Whether you're looking to explore Colorado backcountry skiing for the first time or are ready for more advanced ski mountaineering objectives, the San Juan Mountains offer some of the most varied and rewarding winter terrain in Colorado.
Learn more about our San Juan Mountains backcountry skiing trips and plan your Colorado ski trip.